b.loree said:
To my mind, both the Serbs and the Austrians were the primary culprits. However, I would put Austria as number one, the Serbs caved into all of the Austrian demands after the assassination but they still invaded. Then again, if the Kaiser had not given Germany's "ok" then, would the Austrians have been so aggressive?
This has been debated for more than 100 years now and will likely continue to be debated. I've read about a dozen books on the subject, and seen as many documentaries about it. I would recommend "37 Days," the BBC mini-series. That provides some excellent context to how things got so messed up.
My take is that Queen Victoria is indirectly responsible. She encouraged Willy to have an interest in the British Navy as a way to dissuade his Prussian Army interests, and all that did was convince him that he needed a navy to rival that of his uncle's/cousin's navy! That didn't work out for the British at all.
The Serbs are not blameless but Brian, I'd say you go to far to suggest they were the primary culprits. The government of Serbia probably had ties to the Black Hand, but the bigger issue was how the Serbian royalty were largely looked down by the other European royals, who saw the Serbian Princes and later Kings as upstarts. Unlike most other royals, the Serbian Princes were self-declared. For those who don't know there were two families: Karađorđević and the Obrenović, and neither had any real royal blood. The Karađorđević had the crown as Prince of Serbia first and then it went to the Obrenović, who orchestrated a coup in 1901, in which the Karađorđević family led by Peter I regained it. None of this really helped matters with the Austrians, and the Serbs were militants that wanted Bosnia as part of a Greater Serbia.
The Austrians probably wouldn't have done anything had the Germans not nudged them. Franz Josef was an old man who moved at his own speed and he was really a 19th century monarch in the 20th century. Had he died even a decade earlier the war might have been avoided, but he was urged on by his ministers and as I noted the Germans. I've read he was relieved when Franz Ferdinand died - and said that Sophie Chotek was his greatest cross to bear! This is a man who's brother was executed in Mexico, his son committed a murder/suicide with his teenage lover and whose wife was killed by an Italian anarchist (the anarchist wanted to basically kill any royal he could). Franz Josef lives with all that and felt his nephew's wife was his greatest cross to bear - that's telling. Of course it was always assumed that Karl (Charles) would be the heir after Franz Ferdinand, so I don't know what the problem was, but I am not an aging monarch in a dying nation.
So my feeling is that it still comes back to Willy. He's the one who gave the blank check, he's the one who failed to rope in his generals. He's the guy that started it and could have stopped it. Even as something as simple as not crossing the frontier to Belgium could have the war play out entirely differently.
Ron
